David Simmons on the Tony Awards

The Tony Awards on TV tonight at 7.

Best Musical
Will Win: _Memphis_
Should Win: _Fela!_
While _Fela!_ is the _Passing Strange_ or _In the Heights_ of 2010, in the sense of having the freshness and the energy, _Memphis_ seems to have made a last-minute dash from behind.

Best Play
Will Win: _Red_
Should Win: _Red_
While _Next Fall_ is more moving, _Red_ is the color of intellectual and artistic wonder.

Best Musical Revival
Will Win: _La Cage aux Folles_
Should Win: _A Little Night Music_ or _Ragtime_
This is a very strong category. For me, _A Little Night Music_ or _Ragtime_ are the more nearly perfect productions. _La Cage_, though, has the most heart and critical acclaim, both of which will give it the edge.

Best Play Revival
Will Win: _Fences_
Should Win: _Fences_
_Fences_ looks unstoppable here.

Best Actor in a Musical
Will Win: Douglas Hodge, _La Cage aux Folles_
Should Win: Douglas Hodge, _La Cage aux Folles_
Hodge’s Albin was the performance of the year, emotionally and musically. Hodge took a whiny, whimsical character turned him into someone who lives, breathes, and feels---in a sense, turned him into all of us.

Best Actress in a Musical
Will Win: Catherine Zeta-Jones, _A Little Night Music_
Should Win: Christiane Noll, _Ragtime_
While Zeta-Jones has the name recognition, Noll’s Mother in _Ragtime_ had naturalism and musicality. Possible Upset: Montego Glover in _Memphis_.

Best Actor in a Play
Will Win: Alfred Molina, _Red_
Should Win: Alfred Molina, _Red_
Molina’s Mark Rothko is a performance that grabs you by the paintbrush for two hours and never lets go. Possible Upset: Denzel Washington.

Best Actress in a Play
Will Win: Viola Davis, _Fences_
Should Win: Viola Davis, _Fences_
Viola Davis seems to have a lock on this one.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Will Win: Levi Kreis, _Million-Dollar Quartet_
Should Win: Robin De Jesus, _La Cage aux Folles_
Robin De Jesus (whom I ran into this week during the intermission of _Promises, Promises_) dazzled as the maid in _La Cage_. His comic timing and outrageousness are some of the many strengths of a brilliant show. The buzz, however, seems to be behind Levi Kreis.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Will Win: Katie Finneran, _Promises, Promises_
Should Win: Katie Finneran, _Promises, Promises_
While Angela Lansbury is delightful in _A Little Night Music_, Katie Finneran’s rollicking performance in _Promises, Promises_ nearly the stole the show away from Kristin Chenoweth and Sean Hayes.

Best Featured Actor in a Play
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, _Red_
Should Win: Eddie Redmayne, _Red_

Best Featured Actress in a Play
Will Win: Jan Maxwell, _Lend Me a Tenor_
Should Win: Jan Maxwell, _Lend Me a Tenor_
Jan Maxwell’s Maria was one of the most hilarious elements in a show filled with hilarity.

Best Director of a Musical
Will Win: Terry Johnson, _La Cage aux Folles_
Should Win: Terry Johnson, _La Cage aux Folles_

Best Director of a Play
Will Win: Michael Grandage, _Red_
Should Win: Michael Grandage, _Red_

Best Original Score
Will Win: David Bryan and Joe DiPietro, _Memphis_

Best Book of a Musical
Will Win: Joe DiPietro, _Memphis_

Best Choreography
Will Win: Bill T. Jones, _Fela!_
Should Win: Lynne Page, _La Cage aux Folles_

Best Orchestrations
Will Win: Daryl Waters and David Bryan, _Memphis_
Should Win: Jonathan Tunick, _Promises, Promises_

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Will Win: Christine Jones, _American Idiot_
Should Win: Derek McLane, _Ragtime_

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Will Win: Christopher Oram, _Red_
Should Win: Christopher Oram, _Red_

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Will Win: Matthew Wright, _La Cage aux Folles_
Should Win: Matthew Wright, _La Cage aux Folles_

Best Costume Design of a Play
Will Win: Martin Pakledinaz, _Lend Me a Tenor_
Should Win: Martin Pakledinaz, _Lend Me a Tenor_

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Will Win: Kevin Adams, _American Idiot_
Should Win: Kevin Adams, _American Idiot_

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Will Win: Neil Austin, _Red_
Should Win: Neil Austin, _Red_

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Will Win: Robert Kaplowitz, _Fela!_
Should Win: Robert Kaplowitz, _Fela!_

Best Sound Design of a Play
Will Win: Adam Cork, _Red_
Should Win: Adam Cork, _Red_